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Roughly 15% of the grownup inhabitants (50.4 million folks) will wager about $16 billion whole on Tremendous Bowl 57, in line with the American Gaming Affiliation. Legalization of cell betting in Kansas, Maryland and Ohio signifies that determine is anticipated to be 61% increased than 2022.

They usually may very well be in for an epic NFL betting expertise. However don’t take our phrase for it. The purpose unfold (Eagles -1.5) is below two factors on betting apps for simply the fifth time within the Tremendous Bowl period (the Chiefs have been additionally a part of the final occasion – in Tremendous Bowl XIV vs. the 49ers).

This yr’s Massive Sport really seems like a coin toss (see what we did there), for varied causes, none greater than the well being of Chiefs’ star QB Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes mentioned he feels higher than he did heading into the sport in opposition to Cincinnati. However he’s dealing with a ferocious cross rush and lacks his typical mobility.

What’s a bettor to do? Ask an knowledgeable.

Bookies.com caught up with Johnny Avello, the veteran oddsmaker who serves because the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations at DraftKings to speak Tremendous Bowl 57: The early tendencies, the most important bets, his favourite prop guess and, after all, his Tremendous Bowl 57 choose.

Tremendous Bowl 57 Unfold Betting Developments

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of two/11/23.

The Dolphins have been 1-point favorites over Washington in 1973. The 49ers have been a 1-point favourite over the Bengals in 1982.

The Chiefs have been 1.5-point favorites over the Niners in 2020 and the Seahawks have been 1-point favorites over the Patriots in 2015. 4 occasions. That’s 4 occasions since 1967 that the Tremendous Bowl level unfold was below two factors.

Anybody who has watched soccer lengthy sufficient is aware of that the road for the subsequent yr’s Tremendous Bowl is mechanically set at AFC/NFC -3. It hardly ever goes under that quantity, whatever the individuals.

Besides this time.

“(The Tremendous Bowl) is often 3 factors, however if you have a look at the 2 groups, they’re very shut by way of energy score,” Avello mentioned. “It’s a good quantity and it makes for an excellent betting recreation.”

The Eagles are 1.5-point favorites, although that’s after vital early line motion.

Tremendous Bowl 57 Moneyline Betting Breakdown

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of two/11/23.

“We opened with the Chiefs as a 1-point favourite and it moved to -2.5 for the Eagles inside a day or so and it stayed there,” Avello mentioned, citing Mahomes’ well being and different Chiefs’ accidents as the principle causes for the transfer.

“That’s backed off to 1.5 now, so there was some Chiefs cash, however we’re nonetheless 70/30 on the Eagles.”

In case you’re questioning, and we all know you might be, the Eagles went 10-8 ATS as a favourite this season, overlaying by a median of three.3 factors. That cowl margin was good for Fifth-best within the NFL.

Philadelphia has a dominant offense led by Jalen Hurts and a protection that ranked No.1 in opposition to the cross all season. However many observers, together with Avello, consider that is the most important check the Eagles will face.

“They in all probability haven’t met a staff with the sort of offense,” Avello mentioned.

Energy vs. Energy

Mahomes leads a Kansas Metropolis passing assault that had an NFL-high 73 completions of 20+ yards, however a whole lot of huge performs have come because of his improvisational abilities when he leaves the pocket. That ingredient of his recreation was compromised in opposition to the Bengals as a result of an ankle damage suffered within the Divisional Spherical vs. Jacksonville.

That is the place we word that the Eagles led the NFL in sacks with 70 – 15 greater than second place Kansas Metropolis) and tied for the three^rd-most interceptions within the NFL.

Thus, Avello thinks all of it boils all the way down to the Chiefs offense: “If they’re on and so they put up 35 factors, they’ll be onerous to beat, but when Mahomes runs into any roadblocks and hurdles the place his motion will not be what it often is …”

For the report, if Mahomes was wholesome, Avello says the this line would nonetheless be Chiefs -1: “Proper the place we initially opened it.”

Tremendous Bowl 57 Over/Below Betting Breakdown

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of two/8/23.

“Most people likes the Eagles proper now. Will that change? We’ll see, however proper now there’s simply a whole lot of Eagles help.”

The moneyline motion is extra balanced. As for the overall? Avello has written 57% of tickets to the Over 51 (this is smart with two aggressive coaches).

As for the large bets, they’ve trickled in, however the greater ones come Saturday and Sunday.

“We’ve taken a number of six-figure bets,” Avello mentioned. “I’m positive we’ll see seven-figure bets main as much as recreation time. The fellows that guess that sort of cash don’t suppose the road will change that a lot and so they may get a fair higher value, in order that they’ll wait till Saturday or Sunday.”

I pressed Avello for his Tremendous Bowl 57 finest guess: “I don’t have a lean proper now. That doesn’t imply I received’t guess on the sport. I would look forward to in-play (betting). I prefer to see the circulation of the sport earlier than I put my opinion on the market.”

Tremendous Bowl 57 Prop Betting

If it seems like Mahomes is the important thing to all the recreation, it’s as a result of on the threat of being too simplistic, he’s (Avello famous that Mahomes Over landing passes is the heaviest guess prop and has moved to 2.5 after being at Over 1.5 earlier within the week).

How Mahomes fares in opposition to a traditionally nice cross rush (the Eagles are the primary staff in NFL historical past to have 4 gamers with 10+ sacks) on a bum ankle will go a good distance towards deciding who wins.

Jim Miller, former NFL QB and present NFL analyst on Sirius XM just lately mentioned on air: “I can see the Eagles successful if Jalen Hurts has a nasty recreation. I don’t see (the Chiefs successful) if Mahomes has a nasty recreation.”

You could be conscious {that a} wholesome Mahomes will not be the QB to guess in opposition to when he’s the underdog. The longer term Corridor of Famer is 7-1-1 ATS as a ‘canine. However once more, how wholesome is he?

If Mahomes goes over his passing yards whole (as much as 295.5 after being at 290.5 earlier within the week), there’s a great likelihood the Chiefs come out on high (77% of deal with is on the Over).

“If he can get out of the pocket and do his Houdini routine, he (might) go over his whole. But when he’s throwing (from the pocket) these are actually troublesome passes,” Avello mentioned.

One explicit bettor is bearish on Mahomes: he/she guess $2,000 on Mahomes Actual Cross Completions to be 12 or much less (at +11000 odds; the overall is ready at 25.5 completions). The payout? $222,000.

Harm however, that particular person could be higher off putting it on tails, which is attracting 54% of bets and 56% of deal with. Apparently sufficient, the winner of the coin toss has misplaced 8 straight Tremendous Bowls, in line with DraftKings.

The Chiefs to win the coin toss and the sport is +300 (97% on sure), whereas the Eagles are at +250 (98% sure).

Tremendous Bowl 57 Anytime TD Bets & Different Prop Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of two/11/23.

The anytime landing scorer market is exploding (this author enjoys taking part in them) and Avello mentioned he expects it to be one of many greater prop markets as a result of “it was one of many greater markets all yr lengthy.”

What’s extra, the primary landing scorer market is particularly common because it has extra enticing odds. Travis Kelce (+700) is getting 25.4% of the first-touchdown scorer deal with and 21.6% of the bets, adopted by A.J. Brown (+900) at 8.8% and eight.4% of the bets.

We’re not betting him to attain first, however we do love one Kelce prop: Over 6.5 catches – and Avello agreed. However the Tremendous Bowl 57 prop he prefers? Any participant to have a reception of 55+ yards (+250) . “It looks as if there’s gonna be an enormous play on this recreation.”

If there may be, it’s more likely to come from the large arm of Mahomes, who’s getting 24.5% of the deal with and 15.5% of bets to win Tremendous Bowl 57 MVP.

Tremendous Bowl MVP Betting Developments

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook and correct as of two/11/23.

Jalen Hurts is predictably getting the second-most motion, nonetheless, Eagles LB Haason Reddick at +3500 (12.8%, 13.2%) is the third-most common MVP guess, forward of Travis Kelce (11.9%, 12.5%).

This author, and the long-time oddsmaker, each raised our eyebrows at that one. Positive, Reddick single-handedly ended the Niners’ season, however that looks as if a attain.

“I don’t know what the angle was there, however lots of people discovered that angle.”

From now till Sunday, that’s what we’ll all be searching for: An angle.